NigeriaDecides2023: Nextier Predicts Runoff in New Opinion Poll

Ahead the presidential election on February 25, 2023, a new poll conducted by Nextier, predicted that a possible run off after the first ballot.

Although the poll, which is yet to be formally released but obtained by our reporter, showed the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), Peter Obi, is ahead of Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Nextier said that none of the three candidates will be able to get the 25% vote share in two-thirds of the state in the first round.

The survey conducted on Friday, January 27, 2023, used 144 enumerators from both urban and rural communities to poll 3,000 respondents in all states in Nigeria.

The polls were conducted face-to-face, with emphasis on age and gender. Using a total sample population of 3,000 registered voters, who have collected their Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs), and with a margin error of 2 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval, respondents were asked to select their preferred party using the party logo with the presidential candidates’ names.

Results of the poll indicated that Peter Obi of the Labour Party secured the highest voter preference among leading presidential candidates, with 37 percent of the poll results, closely followed by the PDP (27 percent) and APC (24 percent).

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However, Nextier said the elections may be decided in a second-round runoff because Peter Obi is unlikely to secure 25 percent of the votes cast in two-thirds of the states.

“No presidential candidate currently looks able to meet the criteria for outright victory (absolute majority of votes cast and 25 percent in two-thirds of the states in the first round),” the poll indicated.

The poll showed that the Labour Party can achieve 25 percent in 23 states, lagging in the North-West region (except for Kaduna and Katsina states) and in the North-East regions (except for Adamawa and Taraba states).

Nextier said the likely candidates for the runoff election would be Peter Obi and one of Atiku Abubakar or Bola Tinubu.

However, Nextier said the issues, which will dominate the election include insecurity, unemployment, the economy, and corruption.

“69.8 percent of survey respondents feel that the country is moving in the wrong direction.

“A high percentage of the registered voters have decided on the preferred party

“72 percent of respondents have made up their mind on their preferred party. This position is consistent between rural and urban voters.

“77 percent of respondents indicate that they ‘will vote’ while 63 percent are “definite” about it.

“With such high intention-to-vote, voter turnout looks to be significantly higher than 4 years ago. However, turnout could be depressed by a combination of insecurity, concern about the freedom and fairness of the election and concern about INEC.

“Eight out of ten respondents stated in their words that there is no person or thing that would make them change their preferred party before the elections.

“Radio and WhatsApp will be the key communication channels for political parties ahead of Election Day,” it added.

The presidential election is slated for February 25, 2023, and it is widely expected to be a tight race between the three top contenders.



















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