Nigeria’s refineries, led by the Dangote plant, are set to consume 37% of the country’s projected crude oil output in the first half of 2025.
This amounts to 123.48 million barrels of crude, according to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
Of this, the Dangote refinery alone will take 99.5 million barrels, followed by the Warri refinery with 13.57 million barrels. The Kaduna refinery will need 3.9 million barrels, while the Old Port Harcourt plant will consume 2.86 million barrels. Other facilities, including Aradel and Edo Petrochemicals, will also contribute to the domestic oil demand.
“This is a major step towards ensuring effective capacity utilisation of our domestic refineries,” said Gbenga Komolafe, CEO of NUPRC. He highlighted that the initiative aligns with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021 and aims to secure a consistent crude supply for refineries.
Domestic Refining to Strengthen Nigeria’s Energy Independence
The revival of Nigeria’s oil refining sector, boosted by the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote facility and modular refineries, marks a turning point in the nation’s energy landscape. This effort is supported by 56 oil companies, including Shell and Seplat, which are expected to drive production to meet the refineries’ demands.
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NUPRC’s forecast reveals that daily crude requirements for domestic refineries will average 770,500 barrels per day in early 2025. This represents 37% of Nigeria’s projected daily production of 2.066 million barrels. “This synergy is critical to achieving self-reliance in petroleum products and reducing import dependency,” Komolafe added.
Challenges Remain in Refining Sector
Despite progress, refining companies face challenges, including accusations against oil producers for failing to meet domestic supply obligations under the PIA. This friction underscores the delicate balance required to sustain the industry’s growth.
However, NUPRC’s ‘Project 1 Million Barrels,’ launched in 2024, aims to boost daily crude output to 2.5 million barrels by 2025. “This strategic initiative reflects Nigeria’s commitment to sustaining its oil industry while meeting domestic needs,” Komolafe stated.
Global Oil Prices and Outlook
Global oil prices have shown volatility, with Brent crude settling at $74.64 per barrel at the end of 2024. Prices are expected to hover near $70 in 2025 due to weak Chinese demand and rising global supplies, despite OPEC+ efforts to stabilize the market.
The forecasted collaboration between refineries and producers in Nigeria could play a pivotal role in strengthening the country’s position in the global energy market.
